The NFL reigns supreme in the American sport’s landscape. It is an entertaining, hard-hitting, emotionally draining sport. Football fans salivate for Sunday to come so that they can tailgate outside the stadium before the game or host parties at their house so that everyone can come over and enjoy the game. It has built such a nice momentum that it feels as if nothing can stop this behemoth money-making machine. The demand for football will never stop.
If you have watched any sports channel this week, the talk has centered around the NBA free agency period. The common theme of this year’s free agency period has been enormous contracts. By the numbers, you would think these contracts are given out to superstar players. However, that is not the case at all. Players like Ryan Anderson ($80 million), Bismack Biyombo ($70 million), Solomon Hill ($52 million), and Matthew Dellavedova ($38 million) are just a handful of examples of players who aren’t stars but have gotten star-money. The contracts have gone up because of NBA TV deals. NBA makes more money, which trickles down to the teams and players. With a higher salary cap, unproven and mediocre talent is getting salaries that, in the past, would be considered superstar money.
How does this impact the NFL? Well, imagine a parent of a child that is into various sports. After seeing the contracts handed out in the NBA this week, and the contracts that have been handed out for a while in the MLB, how can I parent not push their child to play basketball and baseball over football? Larger contracts are not the only incentive for parents to look outside the NFL.
One of the biggest, and obvious, reasons is health concerns. Football is a very violent sport. And over the recent years, the NFL has come under the microscope about player concussions. The scare of concussions isn’t going anywhere. As safe as the NFL is trying to make the game, concussions in the game will happen due to the nature of the sport. According to Michael Nedelman of ABC News, the NFL began to keep track of concussion data in 2012. And even with a decline in concussions from 2012-2014, the NFL had a spike in player concussions in 2015. It was the highest number of concussions ever recorded. Player safety and health concerns are real. Parents will detract from the idea of their child playing football. Naturally, any parent would because they are concerned with their child’s well-being.

With a multitude of multi-sport athletes in college, these new competitive contracts open new options to consider. If a college athlete has an option to play football, basketball, or baseball professionally, what would stop that athlete from choosing basketball or baseball over football? First and foremost, basketball and baseball contracts are fully guaranteed. Whether you get injured or the team decides to reduce your role, in basketball and baseball you will get paid. In football, contracts are not guaranteed. A team can decide to cut you and you will only get paid the guaranteed amount, and not the face value of the contract. With more “financial advisors” and parent input, these multi-sport athletes can be convinced to choose other sports over football. Even current Denver WR Emmanuel Sanders joked about playing the wrong sport last week, while RB DeAngelo Williams took a shot at the players getting “superstar money:”
Injuries and guaranteed money are two big reasons for the NFL to be a little concerned. But let’s look two players in their respective leagues that received history-making contracts this past week. Andrew Luck, considered a top-3 QB in the NFL, just received an NFL-record $140 million for six years. On the surface, $140 is a huge number and you would think a top player in his sport should be paid this amount. However, out of to $140 million, only $87 million is guaranteed. Therefore, the Indianapolis Colts are not on the hook for the remaining $53 million.
On the flip side, Mike Conley received a 5-year, $153 million deal from the Memphis Grizzlies. Mike Conley is a very good point guard, and can be considered a top-10 point guard in the NBA. What he means to the Memphis franchise is intangible. However, Mike Conley is not LeBron James, is not a superstar, and not remotely close to be the face of the NBA. With NBA making more money through TV deals and by requiring NBA teams to spend a certain amount of money, contracts like this one will be more frequent.
The NFL should take notice of this trend. In the short-term, the league might not feel the effects, but over the long-term, the NFL might start noticing their talent level drop by losing athletes to other sports. And with a drop in talent leave, it can only affect the NFL’s bottom line.